Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
