Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
